TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa187…a526

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: WNBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 55 out of 100; worst College Football at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2025, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$4.3
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Twolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$10.33
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$10.57
Warriors vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$23
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$26
Magic vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+49.3%+$10.34
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST+37%+$10.36
Hawks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Nuggets vs. Netsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$10.23
Kings vs. Jazzbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$10.21
Mavericks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$18
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Bucks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$2.85
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$10.29
All 20 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2024, EST1968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+37%+$10.36
Buccaneers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST+25%+$10
Colts vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST+40.8%+$10.21
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$24
Ravens vs. Brownsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$32
Colts vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT+47.1%+$10.35
Jets vs. Patriotsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$29.74
Eagles vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Chargers vs. Cardinalsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$24
Ravens vs. Buccaneersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$20.46
Bengals vs. Brownsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$10.21
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$12
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+61.3%+$10.42
Dolphins vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$10.23
Texans vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Patriots vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$13.2
Broncos vs. Saintsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT+72.4%+$10.14
Bills vs. Jetsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+88.7%+$10.64
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT+57.6%+$21.87
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.86
Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.66
Argentina vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.65
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$50.07
Norway vs. England: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$50.91
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$35.22
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.38
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.74
Australia leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.54
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Portugal vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+96.4%+$31.24
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.45
Spain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.15
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.2
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$33.17
Will Germany beat Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT+75.4%+$10.56
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2024, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
WNBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$10
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$10.82
All 3 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2024, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas beat Georgia?backed Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$19
Will LSU beat Arkansas?backed LSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Will Alabama beat Tennessee?backed Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$23
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Man City win on 2024-10-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$10.15
Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ngannou vs. Ferreirabacked Ngannou · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$10.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta beat Celtic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.