MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384ae51e1d0b020c925de1ca796e8bd0cfa3bee3f01e5d9c4856c64d23151cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Yankees, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 38c | 4,492$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yankees | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.81 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Guardians | 32c | 1,758$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…cf59backed Yankees | 68c | 1,470$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Guardians | 39c | 1,260$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.39 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yankees | 62c | 1,238$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.57 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 61c | 1,000$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.65 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Guardians | 38c | 399.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Guardians | 39c | 398.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Guardians | 10c | 360$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yankees | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 74c | 269.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Guardians | 39c | 210.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…74b1backed Yankees | 61c | 196.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yankees | 61c | 180.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Guardians | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yankees | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…9342backed Guardians | 39c | 153.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Guardians | 23c | 152.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yankees | 61c | 151.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…c71dbacked Yankees | 61c | 131.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3256backed Guardians | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…4e3cbacked Guardians | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…c940backed Yankees | 72c | 124.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…a4e2backed Guardians | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…1ddabacked Yankees | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…320dbacked Guardians | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…96f9backed Guardians | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…33b2backed Yankees | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…2397backed Guardians | 40c | 85.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Yankees | 60c | 85.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…c884backed Guardians | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…7132backed Yankees | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…6ac4backed Yankees | 76c | 78.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…cc06backed Yankees | 76c | 78.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yankees | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…f686backed Guardians | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Yankees | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…f400backed Yankees | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…c8f6backed Guardians | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yankees | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 37c | 37.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Yankees | 63c | 37.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Yankees | 61c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Guardians | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yankees | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…a526backed Yankees | 62c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yankees | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yankees | 60c | 26.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…c62bbacked Guardians | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked Yankees | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 1this page
- Will the Yankees and Guardians combine for 8 or more runs?Under won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.