MLB · resolved market
Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa63b0631f01366596df7ccbc7c058da10ccd875489553fcd9a3d9511e7476992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Yes | 50c | 1,740$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 57c | 1,000$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.33 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 50c | 998.99$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 44c | 921.76$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.79 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 43c | 555$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 50c | 462.28$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…928dbacked No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…afd3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad97…1876backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…13bfbacked Yes | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70b…e8f5backed Yes | 45c | 83.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…feb6backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d0…c678backed No | 57c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?this page
- Will the Yankees and Guardians combine for 8 or more runs?Under won
- Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 1Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.