NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Spurs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f881eff5343b106780170ac79abb19ff04a5a116a5c9a1f057ba0e4c6dad927

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Spurs
Resolved: Oct 29, 2024, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,894 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked Rockets	56c	11,995$6,684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,310.12	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Spurs	44c	7,057$3,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,105.22	259	39%101 W · 158 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Spurs	27c	5,867$1,587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,587.14	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef8…1f8dbacked Spurs	6c	5,272$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.31	57	14%8 W · 49 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…a0fabacked Spurs	45c	4,693$2,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,105	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Spurs	23c	3,333$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.59	701	47.8%335 W · 366 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Spurs	2c	2,002$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	1,035	1.1%11 W · 1,024 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked Spurs	43c	2,000$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Rockets	57c	2,000$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$860	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Spurs	19c	1,596$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.5	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Spurs	6c	1,579$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.75	142	33.1%47 W · 95 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Rockets	52c	1,068$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.45	656	42.5%279 W · 377 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80f0…5576backed Spurs	43c	775.03$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.26	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+3.7wins	+0.27per pick	52cpaid	+85%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Rockets	55c	601.87$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.84	337	52.5%177 W · 160 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Spurs	41c	580.48$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	162	42%68 W · 94 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b4…e0febacked Spurs	44c	568.18$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb6…7245backed Spurs	46c	555.58$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.73	150	34%51 W · 99 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Rockets	56c	490$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.6	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Rockets	55c	399.11$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.6	265	47.9%127 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a6…ee95backed Spurs	17c	384.61$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.98	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…ee18backed Rockets	58c	303.95$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc893…e3eebacked Spurs	44c	303.89$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f44…01fcbacked Rockets	59c	300.98$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb8…61c9backed Spurs	44c	300.95$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.42	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da9…7120backed Rockets	56c	285.69$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.71	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b9…f457backed Spurs	45c	250$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x576b…7336backed Spurs	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	183	16.9%31 W · 152 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c5…4fa3backed Spurs	44c	228.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cd3…3c5abacked Spurs	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bcb…8b63backed Spurs	43c	204$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Rockets	58c	150$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d5…e85ebacked Spurs	45c	138.89$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa786…0d36backed Rockets	58c	138.76$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.49	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Spurs	42c	125.28$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.76	103	34%35 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c32…4958backed Rockets	57c	115$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.45	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.29per pick	54cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e91…0042backed Spurs	45c	105.2$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f34…cfafbacked Spurs	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cfa…12a3backed Spurs	42c	99.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953b…f969backed Rockets	57c	99.98$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.99	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e2…0187backed Spurs	42c	99.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	293	55.3%162 W · 131 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbdfc…476dbacked Rockets	57c	90$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.7	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf537…32a3backed Rockets	57c	79.98$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.39	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc82c…89a1backed Spurs	45c	77.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62b0…029ebacked Spurs	44c	75.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a5…3b86backed Rockets	58c	74.14$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.14	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.26per pick	51cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd821…5365backed Spurs	44c	65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…c994backed Spurs	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Rockets	57c	50.88$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.88	85	37.6%32 W · 53 L	-10.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Rockets	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	1,166	54.4%634 W · 532 L	+19.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4114…6946backed Rockets	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860b…e6a3backed Rockets	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5685…1233backed Spurs	43c	49.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Rockets	58c	46.55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.55	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.17per pick	65cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde0c…770cbacked Spurs	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a5…011bbacked Rockets	59c	44.12$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.12	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Rockets	46c	40.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.93	117	19.7%23 W · 94 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x256a…1c70backed Spurs	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	59	39%23 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6097…c40dbacked Spurs	44c	38.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8744…867bbacked Spurs	44c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa413…1fe0backed Rockets	57c	33.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	40	55%22 W · 18 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b1…b397backed Spurs	44c	33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7ef9backed Spurs	43c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e95…89d2backed Spurs	42c	32.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705e…bbd7backed Rockets	59c	32.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbe…3ac2backed Rockets	56c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1c…97d0backed Spurs	43c	31.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…c09abacked Rockets	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd187…b9acbacked Rockets	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+36%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf483…1becbacked Spurs	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	63cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Rockets	58c	25.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	306	48.7%149 W · 157 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b0…9da7backed Rockets	59c	25.64$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa187…a526backed Rockets	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…8703backed Rockets	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1c…8959backed Rockets	58c	22.41$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…7550backed Rockets	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0cf…4a3dbacked Rockets	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	52cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rockets vs. Spurs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market