World Politics · resolved market
Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848b24eb35c6c6cddfa569091a1b6f2144d4a198af5e044c5777404fde21a7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f9…cec8backed Yes | 74c | 2,500$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…e493backed No | 26c | 1,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…fba0backed No | 26c | 1,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894c…1670backed No | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…163bbacked Yes | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…01efbacked Yes | 77c | 533.22$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…6175backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…717cbacked No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…8232backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 18c | 408.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286a…7badbacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 59c | 331.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…459ebacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 75c | 276.49$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…d2a6backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 36c | 168.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 69c | 143.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 68c | 139.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 40c | 121.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43d…b9c6backed Yes | 76c | 119.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…3d36backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 37c | 89.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…a526backed Yes | 74c | 78.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 76c | 66.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a009backed Yes | 75c | 58.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 29c | 54.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 51c | 53.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 51.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…6777backed Yes | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…15debacked Yes | 76c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?this page
- Will Cristina Graeml win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.