World Politics · resolved market
Will Cristina Graeml win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84530ac6958d64b44e9f3764dd91af5937a6102f2f9e9af918ce937194a3dcde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 23c | 450.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 60c | 423.08$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…c109backed Yes | 28c | 343.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 21c | 164.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 36c | 127.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2383backed Yes | 15c | 123.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 39c | 107.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 27c | 106.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 96.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 79.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 40c | 55.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 71c | 46.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…692bbacked Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…c10fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9579backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 71c | 31.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cristina Graeml win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?this page
- Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.