College Football · resolved market
Will LSU beat Arkansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af4513797fcb3776bc63618f67001b3a1911fa1bf23814f04ab44f50811ed48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSUof LSU, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Arkansas | 42c | 2,603$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.17 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed LSU | 58c | 2,524$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.47 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked LSU | 61c | 964.31$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.11 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Arkansas | 38c | 763.48$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked LSU | 56c | 474.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Arkansas | 12c | 470.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Arkansas | 44c | 465.9$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Arkansas | 32c | 281.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed LSU | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Arkansas | 36c | 120.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked LSU | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…8669backed Arkansas | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed LSU | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked LSU | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked LSU | 56c | 65.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked LSU | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…b00dbacked LSU | 77c | 37.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…a526backed LSU | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Arkansas | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked LSU | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed LSU | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LSU beat Arkansas?this page
- Will LSU beat Arkansas by 3 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 57 or more combined points scored?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.