College Football · resolved market
Will LSU beat Arkansas by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f1ea30d25308ab6c898016e202c815763d62b728a6b81ca5e5831a8d0eb0cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 45c | 1,476$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.15 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3738backed Yes | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…b7b2backed No | 48c | 230$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3026…cac2backed Yes | 54c | 184.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked No | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 55c | 91.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…1d7abacked Yes | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LSU beat Arkansas by 3 or more points?this page
- Will LSU beat Arkansas?LSU won
- Will there be 57 or more combined points scored?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.