MLB · resolved market
Dodgers vs. Mets - Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d2a94041e981d22cdfeb95780811bf5fc24a902924154bae9c7837bad3bd3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Dodgers, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Dodgers | 6c | 2,459$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Mets | 78c | 2,136$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Mets | 41c | 1,600$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.99 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Dodgers | 5c | 1,532$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Dodgers | 58c | 1,508$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Mets | 43c | 1,169$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.32 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Mets | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dodgers | 57c | 1,000$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.59 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Mets | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Dodgers | 50c | 989.47$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Mets | 42c | 567.78$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…cf59backed Dodgers | 59c | 550.75$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Dodgers | 59c | 508$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Dodgers | 57c | 504.65$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.65 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Dodgers | 19c | 409.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Mets | 42c | 359.09$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.27 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Dodgers | 5c | 302.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Dodgers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…e9c7backed Dodgers | 58c | 172.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Dodgers | 59c | 133.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Mets | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Dodgers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…1a22backed Dodgers | 58c | 81.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350b…20cebacked Dodgers | 58c | 81.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…7468backed Mets | 44c | 81.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…4c39backed Mets | 44c | 81.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked Dodgers | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Dodgers | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Dodgers | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Dodgers | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Dodgers | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Mets | 40c | 28.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Dodgers | 44c | 27.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Dodgers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…a526backed Dodgers | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…bcd7backed Dodgers | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dodgers vs. Mets - Game 2this page
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.