Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany beat Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b78ce522afe7ff60221ef485ee6a02ce2e0749328fbdd5e225b7f4f7fb44012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 4,292$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.19 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…1961backed Yes | 52c | 3,183$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 53c | 3,100$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.74 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked Yes | 55c | 2,380$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 47c | 2,295$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 76c | 1,974$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…676fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,738$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 45c | 1,358$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,329$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…d2abbacked No | 45c | 1,203$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 50c | 903.1$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…ad08backed Yes | 55c | 674.53$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 45c | 594.55$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.47 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 55c | 556.36$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0841…02b2backed No | 45c | 512.57$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 55c | 363.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…17f5backed No | 45c | 333.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 58c | 320.86$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…f67ebacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…b88abacked No | 45c | 180.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…bbe5backed Yes | 55c | 174.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…b625backed Yes | 55c | 132.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 57c | 104.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fd…5ca7backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…f8dcbacked Yes | 54c | 91.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Yes | 54c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…4319backed Yes | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 57c | 53.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…15a7backed Yes | 55c | 40.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…2d44backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…5e49backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…a526backed Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany beat Netherlands?this page
- Will Netherlands beat Germany?No won
- Will the match between Germany and Netherlands end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.