NBA · resolved market
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b8250c57c734a06ccf66996c42816332ac85ea821d98d05011c49aba24b64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,223,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $671,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,223,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 115,838$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.9 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 108,008$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.02 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes | 0c | 65,306$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…e63cbacked Yes | 0c | 56,395$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…c708backed Yes | 0c | 56,395$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 8c | 56,033$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,242.95 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…1305backed Yes | 0c | 55,437$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 32,470$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…045fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes | 8c | 12,579$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 1c | 11,600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 10c | 9,358$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…f677backed Yes | 0c | 5,090$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf281…b23ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 4c | 4,565$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…86b5backed Yes | 0c | 3,460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…ba9fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…15f6backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…1b70backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f3…7855backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…517abacked Yes | 4c | 2,410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…704cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 3c | 736.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 34.9%94 W · 175 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 394.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 347.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…9a62backed Yes | 10c | 339.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8551…66febacked Yes | 4c | 335.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8462…f3d7backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…9d3fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.