NBA · resolved market
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb106c72f188c7981744277e2cdd32c0d639b6587d3830e4d8081adcce8e93fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $843,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $614,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $843,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8231…92b3backed Yes | 2c | 51,000$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…36b0backed Yes | 4c | 49,236$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 4c | 36,250$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.51 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 29,087$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 4c | 24,483$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.34 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 3c | 21,632$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.58 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.06 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 1c | 15,756$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.29 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 2c | 14,460$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.24 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…41c9backed Yes | 4c | 12,982$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.69 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 12,819$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.84 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes | 1c | 12,128$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,725$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…b343backed Yes | 3c | 10,227$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 3c | 10,158$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.76 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,434$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…880abacked Yes | 2c | 6,439$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…4f23backed Yes | 4c | 5,769$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 4c | 5,100$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…fe12backed Yes | 2c | 5,060$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,967$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,604$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 5c | 4,300$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 3c | 4,221$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 1c | 4,072$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…a86dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,963$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Yes | 2c | 3,948$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…bf85backed Yes | 1c | 3,939$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +18.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,724$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 2c | 3,566$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 2c | 3,034$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…cd72backed Yes | 3c | 2,955$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…dbb1backed Yes | 2c | 2,349$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,168$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…5648backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9b92backed Yes | 1c | 1,774$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…0e66backed Yes | 5c | 1,770$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,769$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 269 | 34.9%94 W · 175 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 3c | 1,746$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…15b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…9f6dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,446$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe628…1595backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d1…7318backed Yes | 5c | 1,301$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…6dc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,245$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,189$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…eff7backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 5c | 1,105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,076$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,074$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 1,041$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,028$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…775cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…65dbbacked Yes | 3c | 980.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…d717backed Yes | 2c | 886.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes | 4c | 823.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 4c | 687$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 266 | 40.2%107 W · 159 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 3c | 644$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…ffe0backed Yes | 3c | 628$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…83a4backed Yes | 4c | 597.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…c6f2backed Yes | 3c | 591.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 3c | 589$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…2bdcbacked Yes | 3c | 584.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…c61dbacked Yes | 5c | 543.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…a8b2backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…c137backed Yes | 5c | 490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 4c | 452.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…aba0backed Yes | 5c | 413.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…9b75backed Yes | 5c | 403.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 378.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…ca01backed Yes | 3c | 329.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Yes | 5c | 276.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…a563backed Yes | 5c | 262$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…c37ebacked Yes | 4c | 250.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2747backed Yes | 4c | 249.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…e980backed Yes | 4c | 238.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.