NBA · resolved market
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb390acc6607acf5cdb76e092119d33a1921baa6c8a1488eba4f8456949ada297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $741,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $756,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $741,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 65,926$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 43,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,435$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 13,700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 197 | 8.6%17 W · 180 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 11,837$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…81abbacked Yes | 0c | 7,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…f7adbacked Yes | 1c | 5,434$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…6b64backed Yes | 1c | 4,130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…694cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,085$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,840$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…ab7abacked Yes | 1c | 2,501$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…311abacked Yes | 1c | 2,138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1772backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f5…e229backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…f042backed Yes | 1c | 1,884$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 993.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.