NBA · resolved market
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x802bf85908f1177026e1b5f108a72609cb59073c996dbdb95ca91ce0dd2c7300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,237,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $899,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,237,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2efb…4c54backed Yes | 1c | 264,391$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 114,985$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafc…dbadbacked Yes | 0c | 102,364$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.88 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 98,884$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 43,090$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 8c | 29,126$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.86 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 13c | 25,000$3,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250.84 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…5194backed Yes | 6c | 23,930$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,273$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 8c | 13,043$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.5 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…6c9bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,519$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 5c | 10,682$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.43 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 13c | 10,212$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…b02dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b3…dde6backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,833$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 269 | 34.9%94 W · 175 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 10c | 5,465$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.19 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…846cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,122$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…5c0cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,628$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…41c9backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,442$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…0034backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…e9c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 107 | 24.3%26 W · 81 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…3fc9backed Yes | 14c | 1,188$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 510 | 37.5%191 W · 319 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 1c | 840$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…f653backed Yes | 14c | 678.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb14…f690backed Yes | 9c | 619.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…20dabacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 431.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fc…9b48backed Yes | 4c | 427.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 129 | 30.2%39 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 357.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed Yes | 14c | 335.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 306.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Yes | 6c | 203.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…ae50backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…af06backed Yes | 14c | 180.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6005…6e1cbacked Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9761…703dbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…460fbacked Yes | 10c | 176.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 13c | 169.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…8929backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4934backed Yes | 11c | 120.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…bcc4backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…99b9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…4d85backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c0…a31cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…001dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…5be2backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.