NBA · resolved market
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe628283788635a710c9d342be36a5737de69a9aa829a67d43aac83169b3c5a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.4 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 26,149$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 2c | 24,091$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.86 | 109 | 26.6%29 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 18,324$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 9,934$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 2c | 9,042$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…e232backed Yes | 1c | 2,727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed Yes | 2c | 2,179$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +310.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,171$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Yes | 1c | 1,438$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…10dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…aec7backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16b…ade4backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…1d13backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…f929backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…9406backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb14…f690backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…c873backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…dc56backed Yes | 2c | 722.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?this page
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?Yes won
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference?No won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.