Premier League · resolved market
Will Belgium win Group E?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b857ec5062d633f3d19dca5c1a1c06518f3e0d0de212c3fbb78e486f235a3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57c4…d57dbacked Yes | 47c | 846.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 56c | 489.34$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 63c | 476$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 27c | 387.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c114backed Yes | 26c | 351.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed Yes | 45c | 301.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 43c | 239.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 28c | 234.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 44c | 230.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…c77bbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 33c | 217.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 67c | 190.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 62c | 161.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a1…9b67backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Yes | 64c | 156.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…d9e5backed Yes | 63c | 137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 39c | 128.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…2478backed No | 60c | 101.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…9aecbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 56c | 93.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…089ebacked Yes | 64c | 81.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…b0b6backed No | 56c | 80.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…c9b0backed Yes | 45c | 79.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…5794backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…1897backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…d75fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…938fbacked Yes | 51c | 71.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…af4bbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…1667backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…279ebacked Yes | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…5c40backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…eca4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…7de9backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 47c | 44.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…da41backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…dcb3backed Yes | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3331…e256backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…4feabacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…8594backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb837…ab31backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0821…0ef3backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…7138backed Yes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…b1d1backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…8686backed Yes | 44c | 22.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…ef9cbacked Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3788…be1abacked No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…ada1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…c310backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium win Group E?this page
- Will Romania win Group E?Yes won
- Will Slovakia win Group E?No won
- Will Ukraine win Group E?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.