Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df4efa8764eec4d1bd089e8598447d32408951ad502f483eecae2e0a19480bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,306,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,829,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,306,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 185,528$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.03 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 1c | 153,638$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.63 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 1c | 78,451$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…48babacked Yes | 1c | 69,813$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…992fbacked Yes | 1c | 44,609$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…1b15backed Yes | 2c | 40,250$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 38,411$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 1c | 37,822$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 3c | 36,276$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…ab7cbacked Yes | 1c | 33,738$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 3c | 32,190$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 66c | 28,725$18,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,940.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…75b9backed Yes | 0c | 25,053$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 23,949$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 1c | 21,925$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…32e8backed Yes | 3c | 21,728$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed Yes | 1c | 19,944$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 24c | 19,807$4,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,717.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 21c | 19,137$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.32 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…e05cbacked Yes | 2c | 17,749$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 0c | 17,706$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 20c | 16,076$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,252.68 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 1c | 14,350$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…4beabacked Yes | 2c | 13,679$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 11,821$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Yes | 2c | 11,132$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 1c | 10,691$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 8c | 10,434$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…abf8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…5069backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 1c | 9,713$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 9,539$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.91 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…b03dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,114$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 1c | 8,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…5fcdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,050$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…2749backed No | 37c | 7,548$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,742.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 7,180$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Yes | 0c | 6,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 6,722$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 9c | 6,522$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 6,231$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 72c | 5,808$4,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,182.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 19c | 5,400$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,290$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 2c | 5,024$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…f0c2backed Yes | 1c | 5,024$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…3013backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 0c | 4,965$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 31c | 4,749$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,276.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 2c | 4,742$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 75c | 4,550$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 76c | 4,493$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,068$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…9fd7backed Yes | 2c | 4,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 69c | 3,907$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…ac7dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,272$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,203$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…66c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 10c | 3,121$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…3a01backed Yes | 1c | 3,061$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked No | 31c | 2,909$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 70c | 2,856$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…9430backed Yes | 1c | 2,854$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,591$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…a692backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…d67bbacked No | 31c | 2,581$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,444$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…be7bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,438$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfd…84c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,286$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed No | 24c | 2,229$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 77c | 2,172$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.44 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 5c | 2,030$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…3283backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,972$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…4425backed Yes | 2c | 1,835$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 18c | 1,793$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 24c | 1,721$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed Yes | 16c | 1,699$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…353ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,577$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…5178backed Yes | 1c | 1,542$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…a2cabacked Yes | 70c | 1,521$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…cd29backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 56c | 1,500$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…63e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,447$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 19c | 1,299$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,279$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 1c | 1,170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 71c | 1,170$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.46 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 37c | 1,166$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 24c | 1,157$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.