Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163854cc14ae2580e74e10bd1a5aecba0036c893a645f280c0f820dee470676c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $613,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 0c | 21,129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9962…aab6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,843$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes | 0c | 10,480$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…9a92backed Yes | 0c | 10,270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…9f37backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…e919backed Yes | 0c | 7,877$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88c…47d0backed Yes | 0c | 7,873$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…a25ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,850$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…2f8bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,817$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5116backed Yes | 0c | 7,798$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e11…5b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,712$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe710…eb15backed Yes | 0c | 7,681$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…8bbebacked Yes | 0c | 7,674$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…bc83backed Yes | 0c | 7,618$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec3…ec5ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,601$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…7123backed Yes | 0c | 7,576$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 0c | 6,688$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…38a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 5,351$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…d69dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…0915backed Yes | 0c | 4,208$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…f9fbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,201$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…37bfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efa…8009backed Yes | 0c | 4,149$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…9de6backed Yes | 0c | 4,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…3351backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a49…e634backed Yes | 0c | 3,978$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042c…5b9abacked Yes | 0c | 3,774$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…333fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,661$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…91e7backed Yes | 0c | 3,587$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?No won
- Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.