Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a4830eef6f60d9e0f05ecb5aa81b11d7d361e1a869c0138219840af849a986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,564,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,479,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,564,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 1c | 132,123$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed No | 2c | 84,857$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.71 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 1c | 67,186$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 0c | 43,774$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 1c | 39,381$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…75b9backed No | 0c | 30,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 2c | 28,623$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.88 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 1c | 27,267$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8707…a9febacked No | 1c | 24,311$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 30c | 21,060$6,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,803.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 0c | 18,906$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 1c | 18,725$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 14c | 17,700$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.59 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…992fbacked No | 1c | 15,700$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 2c | 14,374$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…8f54backed No | 2c | 13,650$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 3c | 13,304$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…e05cbacked No | 1c | 13,236$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…792cbacked No | 3c | 12,702$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…4425backed No | 1c | 12,689$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 24c | 11,406$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 1c | 11,280$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 61c | 11,146$6,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,389.69 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 1c | 10,910$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 3c | 10,170$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.37 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed No | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…5069backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…57adbacked Yes | 23c | 9,787$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,498.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 9,537$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 29c | 9,500$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,705 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 0c | 9,313$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…8468backed No | 13c | 9,307$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 74c | 9,081$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.35 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed No | 2c | 9,081$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 8,745$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.41 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 45c | 8,631$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,767.99 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 18c | 8,547$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,008.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed No | 1c | 8,231$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 23c | 8,058$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,204.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 70c | 8,000$5,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,579.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked No | 3c | 6,764$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…bb6ebacked No | 1c | 6,710$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 22c | 6,542$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 22c | 6,440$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 70c | 6,193$4,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.08 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 3c | 6,053$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 28c | 5,997$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.43 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 30c | 5,935$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…2749backed Yes | 50c | 5,554$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 1c | 5,480$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 1c | 5,207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 35c | 4,831$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,161.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…fa1cbacked No | 0c | 4,811$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 20c | 4,692$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.79 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,503$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,384.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 22c | 4,459$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 32c | 4,048$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 1c | 4,010$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 31c | 4,002$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 7c | 3,891$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…9fecbacked No | 2c | 3,890$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 1c | 3,642$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 27c | 3,591$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…5178backed No | 1c | 3,502$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 3,261$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.51 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…5888backed No | 1c | 3,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…830cbacked No | 1c | 2,802$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked No | 12c | 2,782$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed No | 3c | 2,771$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…f833backed Yes | 79c | 2,747$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 22c | 2,657$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…0ce4backed Yes | 19c | 2,631$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd015…4160backed No | 1c | 2,555$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 25c | 2,551$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 75c | 2,541$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1062…0c85backed Yes | 51c | 2,488$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…7f64backed Yes | 42c | 2,487$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 18c | 2,417$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes | 17c | 2,310$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…7160backed Yes | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +121%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…bf60backed No | 2c | 2,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 21c | 2,190$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.48 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…5ea1backed Yes | 24c | 2,059$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed Yes | 17c | 2,041$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 71c | 1,891$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Yes | 21c | 1,848$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,716$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…2f33backed Yes | 24c | 1,637$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 70c | 1,606$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.11 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…467ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,605$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes | 20c | 1,600$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…7924backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.