Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2e6d8f4b3022aff8050bae1924250702cf424b970986b2ed850736d8148bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $321,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 9c | 9,373$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 27c | 4,804$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 8c | 4,400$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 8c | 3,348$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…66c8backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 26c | 2,652$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 18c | 2,075$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.36 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 21c | 1,820$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…766fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 14c | 1,014$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…3e34backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…d57ebacked Yes | 21c | 846.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7254backed Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75d…e1febacked Yes | 11c | 662.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 12c | 638.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Yes | 27c | 600.48$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde69…c751backed Yes | 9c | 588.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 10c | 525$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed Yes | 12c | 520.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 461.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…650ebacked Yes | 14c | 305.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6963…c7bbbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…8affbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 22c | 182$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 21c | 161.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97fe…704cbacked Yes | 12c | 153.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…f79bbacked Yes | 16c | 145.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…da58backed Yes | 13c | 142.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 27c | 122.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election?this page
- Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 51 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?Yes won
- Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.