TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,267,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$370,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,267,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3513…33f6backed Yes4c54,829$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a4…2e6cbacked Yes0c53,175$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb60a…3c37backed Yes6c35,638$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d5…682bbacked Yes8c31,490$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b78…ca3bbacked Yes0c23,556$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5e…53bdbacked Yes0c23,503$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f8…667ebacked Yes0c23,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf7…3af3backed Yes0c23,333$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be9…be53backed Yes0c23,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f9…8288backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes8c22,979$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.82616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11e…9543backed Yes0c22,754$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a07…313fbacked Yes0c22,523$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4652…6111backed Yes0c22,323$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712b…162fbacked Yes0c22,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c5…2fd4backed Yes0c22,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…80c5backed Yes0c22,153$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb99…c827backed Yes0c22,093$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f6…a400backed Yes0c22,044$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ef…863ebacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf829…8c3dbacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6791…50f0backed Yes0c21,992$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…beedbacked Yes0c21,953$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d4…7d08backed Yes0c21,903$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c81…cc8ebacked Yes0c21,733$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faa…c092backed Yes0c21,654$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722c…1c73backed Yes0c21,573$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0453…9eaebacked Yes0c21,543$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb6…cd7ebacked Yes0c21,473$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36f…e960backed Yes0c21,254$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba7…ed24backed Yes0c21,245$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb87…a7c9backed Yes0c20,813$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefa…53d3backed Yes0c20,693$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e2…3c95backed Yes0c20,673$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710c…cc6fbacked Yes0c20,653$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdada…abd3backed Yes0c20,613$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ed…c9ecbacked Yes0c20,493$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9576…0c4cbacked Yes0c20,486$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc563…e15abacked Yes0c20,373$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9dd…96febacked Yes0c20,263$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…c14fbacked Yes0c20,213$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec7…e953backed Yes0c20,063$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e4…26c3backed Yes0c20,033$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1373…b963backed Yes0c19,805$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154f…2ea3backed Yes0c19,773$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ed…c74cbacked Yes0c19,524$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd887…a839backed Yes0c19,293$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1671…ee36backed Yes0c19,034$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…7efcbacked Yes0c18,963$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf45b…6cdabacked Yes0c18,932$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cab…b3dcbacked Yes0c18,813$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…195cbacked Yes0c18,793$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes7c18,756$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.575824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a35…de80backed Yes0c18,720$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b01…a180backed Yes0c18,553$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0870…9194backed Yes0c18,532$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc4…9aa8backed Yes0c18,443$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae56…c111backed Yes0c18,412$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c2…cfeebacked Yes0c18,252$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94e…aee0backed Yes0c18,122$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac9…756dbacked Yes0c18,043$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3f…d19abacked Yes0c17,983$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3d…4c3fbacked Yes0c17,933$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac04…fdcebacked Yes0c17,752$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc2…7692backed Yes0c17,683$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x911a…96eebacked Yes0c17,653$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd107…136dbacked Yes0c17,613$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5506…a075backed Yes0c17,593$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…9ecfbacked Yes0c17,474$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595a…d7bebacked Yes0c17,409$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff6…8a08backed Yes0c17,333$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20c4…40e8backed Yes0c17,063$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cd…e8d3backed Yes0c16,783$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…d569backed Yes0c16,643$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fc…e108backed Yes0c16,594$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f056backed Yes0c16,572$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8000…c4efbacked Yes0c16,413$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bdf…42debacked Yes0c16,353$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83e…b298backed Yes0c16,232$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes6c16,172$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.142025%5 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bd…d862backed Yes0c15,593$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb372…cc95backed Yes0c15,483$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c5…8b72backed Yes0c14,547$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa48…5116backed Yes0c14,162$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3f…e8cabacked Yes0c13,893$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7094…5d91backed Yes0c13,703$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes6c12,962$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Yes29c12,713$3,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,643.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d1…5699backed Yes0c11,805$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc3…d9b0backed Yes0c11,602$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5431…47e1backed Yes3c10,962$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.941435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8b…d082backed Yes0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9e…87c9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c1…346bbacked Yes0c8,147$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8628…27c2backed Yes8c7,858$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.771330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes7c5,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c5,487$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…fcefbacked Yes10c5,200$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes3c5,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.156432.8%21 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.