Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Republicans have 51 seats in Senate after election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421c3221b9529524a3c8b1640869a24200633a8f2cbb0785783661ba0b0fde53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 19,175$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.26 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 18c | 12,288$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 25c | 7,878$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 22c | 6,418$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 22c | 5,481$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c2…38a7backed Yes | 31c | 4,770$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 19c | 4,400$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…0db1backed Yes | 19c | 2,676$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…0eccbacked Yes | 21c | 2,617$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 17c | 2,117$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.81 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,778$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…766fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,700$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,545$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.61 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 19c | 1,541$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 22c | 1,323$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…cf05backed Yes | 23c | 1,088$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 18c | 1,066$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 77c | 999.71$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 18c | 741$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 20c | 722.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 635.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 22c | 630.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Yes | 18c | 599.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 552$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7254backed Yes | 23c | 550$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…175abacked Yes | 20c | 516$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 23c | 511.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked Yes | 23c | 436.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…f1bfbacked Yes | 25c | 430$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed Yes | 18c | 384$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…0eb6backed Yes | 19c | 318.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…ac63backed Yes | 26c | 292.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed Yes | 21c | 282.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 23c | 279.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97fe…704cbacked Yes | 23c | 253.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 234.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…0349backed Yes | 22c | 225.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde69…c751backed Yes | 19c | 221.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…241bbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…e931backed Yes | 21c | 184.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 153$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f83…c9d8backed Yes | 19c | 132.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ed…2907backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…41aabacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 23c | 114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 105.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…fa95backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 23c | 101.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…f8f3backed Yes | 22c | 98.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…9a39backed Yes | 27c | 93.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…f79bbacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 77c | 72.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 22c | 72.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…0acebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…8664backed No | 77c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…32a5backed No | 79c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…1e8fbacked No | 79c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republicans have 51 seats in Senate after election?this page
- Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?Yes won
- Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?No won
- Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.