NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99f83ed10c6e47f43cfe900c70d3a7f404d02265cf10c1edd972ab626f26f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…0d9fbacked Yes | 55c | 6,189$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 44c | 2,578$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 2,538$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.53 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed No | 57c | 1,596$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.5 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 56c | 1,364$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.67 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 49c | 1,170$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 50c | 1,140$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.2 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 650.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 45c | 575.7$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 74c | 525$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 20c | 507.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…1dbfbacked Yes | 57c | 473.06$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5af…a2febacked Yes | 27c | 444.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 74c | 403.71$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 52c | 294.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea4…eeeabacked Yes | 21c | 288.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…0726backed Yes | 37c | 273.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 75c | 258.91$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 57c | 218$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 13c | 197.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…b4dbbacked Yes | 54c | 178.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 170.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 43c | 168.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…88a2backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 75c | 119.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71e…7972backed No | 75c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 34c | 110.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 60c | 101.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 65c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 23c | 68.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 66.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked Yes | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 46c | 53.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…bd18backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…7f5ebacked Yes | 40c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 38c | 44.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 41.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 40.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked No | 73c | 36.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 42c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Heart 5"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hillpower"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.