TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,018 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed No47c564.89$264 inWon+$300.719645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Yes60c510$306 inLost-$305.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+131.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes38c327$124 inLost-$123.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked No62c250.1$155 inWon+$95.0417648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed No53c227$120 inWon+$106.69887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick45cpaid+208.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed No59c196.56$116 inWon+$80.564334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…b003backed Yes10c150$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes40c110.57$45 inLost-$44.7726830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c100$29 inLost-$29.0310143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes41c94.21$39 inLost-$38.522650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes53c56.6$30 inLost-$303234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x844b…0a51backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No59c48.78$29 inWon+$204434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf2d…ef04backed No62c40.32$25 inWon+$15.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+415.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b6d…5d26backed No60c40.32$24 inWon+$16.131788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+49.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa219…54d0backed Yes53c32.53$17 inLost-$17.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No63c30$19 inWon+$11.17131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes47c27$13 inLost-$12.694443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.