NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d7767a1979814da9f8765e97fc16e01593fd3629e9697a62864ecbf3c95162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 4c | 5,767$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 0c | 3,682$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 3,485$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 10c | 3,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 6c | 2,586$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 7c | 2,228$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed No | 1c | 2,062$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 142 | 15.5%22 W · 120 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…8156backed No | 10c | 1,859$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…b593backed No | 8c | 1,251$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…888abacked No | 10c | 1,049$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 8c | 929.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c8…b0dcbacked No | 10c | 721.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 7c | 582$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 4c | 565.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55c…b52fbacked No | 10c | 512.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 10c | 492.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 8c | 448.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…88bdbacked No | 9c | 425.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed No | 10c | 405.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed No | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 11c | 377$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…af20backed No | 5c | 356.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed No | 11c | 278.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…4946backed No | 10c | 255.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…8ffebacked No | 10c | 247.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked No | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 11c | 188.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 6c | 187.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 7c | 174.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d4…d955backed No | 10c | 151.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 146.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 8c | 145.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 10c | 127.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked No | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 9c | 120.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Heart 5"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hillpower"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.