NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a94473c4b45885d572252af07dad6d8f4d3ae5bbb504e47bb78b5a9d327b385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 13c | 7,552$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.65 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed No | 64c | 1,575$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.81 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked No | 65c | 750$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4c…cf2cbacked No | 72c | 689.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 65c | 680$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 21c | 519.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad6d…fb82backed No | 71c | 505.97$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…6d3ebacked No | 73c | 423.57$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed No | 65c | 394.64$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 34c | 360$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 334$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…928fbacked No | 20c | 157$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 65c | 136.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…8666backed No | 73c | 87.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5af…a2febacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…1602backed No | 71c | 70.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…ef04backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…81babacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…7a30backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 38c | 48.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…38b2backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f8…76abbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 34c | 40.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 51c | 39.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d07…f934backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…7043backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…f99cbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…9572backed No | 80c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…5260backed Yes | 43c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…27d3backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Yes | 52c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…2dcebacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 52c | 27.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…661fbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…d034backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…b173backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…5d9dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…08a2backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…744cbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…e8f0backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Heart 5"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hillpower"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.