NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd9e929eae6dad535b4691de0f68961b8fab9a1af364e23d2c6aeda0b0b14c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x796a…c11bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,579$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed No | 61c | 1,232$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 989.46$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.79 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 57c | 871.52$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 65c | 691.66$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.94 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 62c | 469.25$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 233$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 32c | 221.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…5598backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…04d8backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -86%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c8…b0dcbacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 31c | 82.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 61c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…5d9dbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…5fa4backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…88a2backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…4946backed Yes | 36c | 63.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 60.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…80f0backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 36c | 50.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…40bfbacked Yes | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…d350backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Heart 5"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hillpower"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.