NFL · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5dae812701a0f9555a7dd02b4e3be4475fdcba5708094fe5c0ee024090d2b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,509$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.37 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed No | 63c | 1,105$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.26 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 51c | 891.55$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…03e0backed Yes | 57c | 499.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 79c | 444.42$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 35c | 288.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 12c | 245.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 23c | 230.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 42c | 226.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 52c | 212$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…80f0backed Yes | 42c | 189.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 38c | 180.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…4340backed Yes | 37c | 136.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 126.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 56c | 121.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 115.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 64c | 70.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed No | 36c | 66.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…3051backed Yes | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…6b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…919abacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…186dbacked Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…fc73backed Yes | 36c | 43.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 39c | 26.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "m.A.A.d. City"?this page
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "A.D.H.D"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "DNA"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Element"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Euphoria"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Heart 5"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hillpower"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Like That"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Money Trees"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "N95"?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?Yes won
- Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.