TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble"?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,295 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2625…b2f8backed No9c994$87 inLost-$87.051127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed No7c662.65$47 inLost-$46.62933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No7c644$45 inLost-$45.455530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No5c607$28 inLost-$28.2511837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No6c413.46$26 inLost-$26.272623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No7c334$24 inLost-$23.8848847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c0…8666backed No16c243.26$38 inLost-$38.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-72.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b4…1d18backed No14c145.5$20 inLost-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No12c100$12 inLost-$1231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No10c100$10 inLost-$10580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+113.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.