TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Hey Now"?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,594 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes37c735.32$273 inLost-$272.82236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b6d…5d26backed No62c650.33$405 inWon+$245.131788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+49.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No74c350$259 inWon+$913100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00cd…d350backed Yes8c260.89$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5af…a2febacked Yes22c248.86$54 inLost-$53.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes28c184$52 inLost-$51.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No62c183.95$113 inWon+$70.72650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes17c175.82$30 inLost-$29.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes37c120$44 inLost-$44.4749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes14c120$17 inLost-$17.16933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$184632.6%15 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes15c97$15 inLost-$14.554443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes43c91.67$40 inLost-$39.788234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f5b…88a2backed Yes34c85.88$29 inLost-$29933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No70c75.15$53 inWon+$22.29181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed No72c71$51 inWon+$19.882825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes19c57.89$11 inLost-$1112239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed No68c44.32$30 inWon+$14.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x194f…848ebacked Yes32c40$13 inLost-$12.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c31$24 inWon+$7.2931439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.