TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,065 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e04…564dbacked No55c312.69$171 inWon+$141.6117648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No53c300$160 inWon+$139.7825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes45c249.98$112 inLost-$112.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed No50c184$92 inWon+$92933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd452…03e0backed Yes20c150$30 inLost-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No52c149.99$78 inWon+$723100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes47c120.17$57 inLost-$56.6826830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b6d…5d26backed No64c118.05$76 inWon+$42.41788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+49.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No66c99.56$65 inWon+$34.239181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c84$42 inLost-$4231439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No64c80.33$51 inWon+$28.9219645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No78c80$62 inWon+$17.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd28…2e65backed Yes36c77.47$28 inLost-$27.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5af…a2febacked Yes30c74.05$22 inLost-$22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c50$13 inLost-$12.5310143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No80c50$40 inWon+$108958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes48c50$24 inLost-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes47c48.74$23 inLost-$22.668234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes50c42$21 inLost-$20.822650%13 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes47c40$19 inLost-$18.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea33…6015backed Yes33c40$13 inLost-$13.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No50c20$10 inWon+$10580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+113.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.