NFL · resolved market
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad30fa161d4ca0d13a6a7fa829a64303a80aed46f6538717ba76e9e4b1c0215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes | 14c | 16,501$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 17c | 13,243$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.99 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 13c | 11,570$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.67 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 16c | 10,847$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.74 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 12c | 6,115$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.13 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,532$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 16c | 2,708$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e1…d496backed Yes | 18c | 2,451$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 2,445$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,398$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 13c | 2,093$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.97 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 17c | 1,970$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.74 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,948$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.97 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,667$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 12c | 1,441$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 11c | 1,277$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 1,268$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 1,115$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 20c | 1,065$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked No | 69c | 863.22$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 12c | 796.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8948backed Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 18c | 789$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 16c | 742.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 10c | 698.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 65c | 655$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 78c | 638.41$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 16c | 591.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a5…0c45backed No | 80c | 481.84$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 466.56$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 446.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 72c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 12c | 398$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea4…eeeabacked Yes | 13c | 371.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 14c | 358.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 16c | 348$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 341.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 18c | 303$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 16c | 300.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 14c | 297.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 73c | 293$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 69c | 258.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 256.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 19c | 247.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 77c | 244.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 50c | 201.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 177$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 17c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 167.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb114…2bd1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ae…d7eebacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…adabbacked Yes | 15c | 156.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 18c | 144$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +404.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 15c | 109.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 60c | 104.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…d645backed Yes | 17c | 65.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9d21backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 48c | 54.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 68c | 32.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.