NFL · resolved market
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d7e6e1bf4951d0ff6a3449a40e004e56d380b192111dcf8f3a1fdd55f1714e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 78c | 2,408$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.31 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 77c | 2,050$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,265$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 4c | 1,199$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes | 3c | 882$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 39c | 717$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 698.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes | 43c | 675$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 36c | 669.9$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 21c | 555$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0d…4fcdbacked Yes | 19c | 518.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 398.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…1d18backed Yes | 5c | 392.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 23c | 380$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 77c | 284.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 32c | 282$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 77c | 265.02$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 44c | 256.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 35c | 195.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 192.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…5025backed Yes | 10c | 157.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 7c | 153.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 60c | 141.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 71c | 140.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…3e37backed Yes | 9c | 133.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 73c | 128.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067a…cee0backed Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 73c | 104.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 77.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 28c | 59.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 70c | 48.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 70c | 45.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…49afbacked Yes | 30c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 28c | 45.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…e859backed Yes | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 33c | 34.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 33c | 31.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.