NFL · resolved market
Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b991bd50e62535d50240084f8227834d98371b9bcdd2fbb93b78b534f54bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e6e…6ef6backed Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,088$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 39c | 703.51$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 64c | 689.61$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked No | 36c | 685.59$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 59c | 580$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 52c | 502.4$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.44 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 75c | 457.78$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 25c | 450$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 270.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 67c | 250$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 51c | 234.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked No | 60c | 206.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 45c | 193.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc261…6111backed No | 56c | 172$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…0631backed Yes | 44c | 172$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed No | 46c | 164$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 51c | 162.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 52c | 147.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 123.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…1034backed No | 56c | 117$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…2a88backed Yes | 44c | 117$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 55c | 111.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…a628backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc000…ea37backed Yes | 60c | 101.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 93.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…0d25backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 59c | 84.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 65c | 80.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 58c | 52.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…be51backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 45c | 41.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b8…bfd9backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…8b72backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…7299backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…2022backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…2102backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bca6backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…9578backed Yes | 67c | 21.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd015…b47bbacked Yes | 62c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…8f6dbacked Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…ebdcbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.