TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,109 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c74…cc9fbacked Yes16c53,598$8,576 inLost-$8,575.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes14c810.53$116 inLost-$115.731508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No69c664.72$461 inWon+$203.241668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd654…b50dbacked Yes30c400$120 inLost-$12040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes18c333.33$60 inLost-$608540%34 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c8…b0dcbacked Yes32c311.64$100 inLost-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes29c169.77$50 inLost-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes18c146$26 inLost-$26.284443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No69c144.09$99 inWon+$44.879181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9419…5865backed Yes39c127.44$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No57c100$57 inWon+$42.871894.4%17 W · 1 L+6.2wins+0.35per pick60cpaid+73.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x0e5d…5598backed Yes34c89.14$30 inLost-$301931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No73c86.66$64 inWon+$23.035750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe18b…8324backed Yes47c84.98$40 inLost-$39.8970%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7b…04d8backed Yes68c74.05$50 inLost-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-86%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No63c63.72$40 inWon+$23.721471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No66c63.67$42 inWon+$21.65276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf577…972ebacked Yes35c50$18 inLost-$17.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c46.04$12 inLost-$12.4526830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f13…5b36backed Yes29c42.14$12 inLost-$12.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No32c38.67$12 inWon+$26.318744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8079…effabacked Yes67c37.31$25 inLost-$251225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f2…1cdbbacked Yes31c31.88$10 inLost-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e7…d447backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8987…a39bbacked No58c30$17 inWon+$12.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No66c20$13 inWon+$6.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.