NFL · resolved market
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9306060d704cb23ed9851124eade3a5390a7292b4aebf2bfde6131c93925bf20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 13c | 12,344$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 10,046$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.51 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,567$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,810$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 4,006$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.96 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,613$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 2c | 3,350$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 2,557$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 5c | 2,525$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 3c | 2,373$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 2,300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…e53bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,199$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 63c | 1,342$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.92 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8948backed Yes | 13c | 1,228$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,033$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 947.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 2c | 865.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…de3fbacked Yes | 9c | 817.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 800.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes | 5c | 793$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…709dbacked Yes | 7c | 710.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…e859backed Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 15c | 659.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Yes | 6c | 656.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 6c | 589.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 586.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Yes | 3c | 573.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 3c | 560.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…8de9backed Yes | 9c | 552.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 2c | 526.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 4c | 486.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…1a68backed Yes | 4c | 453.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…2787backed Yes | 7c | 432.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…e32ebacked Yes | 6c | 416.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 7c | 397$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…aed5backed Yes | 5c | 390.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 5c | 387.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…9fb1backed Yes | 9c | 385.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…050bbacked Yes | 16c | 384.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 4c | 380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 4c | 375.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…a229backed Yes | 5c | 370.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked Yes | 6c | 357.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…f2fdbacked Yes | 13c | 356.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 5c | 356.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 352$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5c40backed Yes | 6c | 262.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 14c | 255$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…09f6backed Yes | 45c | 251.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…1a10backed Yes | 20c | 245.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes | 7c | 239.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b527backed Yes | 19c | 235$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…5ac2backed Yes | 9c | 215.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 10c | 208$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4567…71ddbacked Yes | 17c | 187$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…5b22backed Yes | 5c | 183.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c4…d362backed Yes | 5c | 181.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e0e0backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 21c | 117.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 18c | 108.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 16c | 90.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…096abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.