TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,417 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5724…73e5backed No73c1,219$895 inWon+$323.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6e…6ef6backed Yes27c1,000$272 inLost-$272728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac1…93c7backed Yes9c507$46 inLost-$45.63560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067a…cee0backed Yes6c350$21 inLost-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c270.81$63 inLost-$62.5726830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x97b2…9d66backed Yes15c250$38 inLost-$37.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No75c220.23$166 inWon+$54.561861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24e…9441backed Yes19c131.81$25 inLost-$253036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes33c100$33 inLost-$33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c100$80 inWon+$20.3531439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No77c85$65 inWon+$19.818234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes15c80.27$12 inLost-$12.04340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7779…17ccbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No69c78.52$55 inWon+$249181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost-$154434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes35c59.3$21 inLost-$215554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c50.1$12 inLost-$12.029947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf577…972ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c5…227dbacked No71c40$28 inWon+$11.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No50c25.4$13 inWon+$12.718744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No57c24.35$14 inWon+$10.4720736.2%75 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No73c15.05$11 inWon+$4.0612239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.