TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b86…0311backed Yes8c5,476$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes8c2,902$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.55530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes7c2,642$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.47166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes9c2,183$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2431543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes6c2,062$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.462532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes10c1,591$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.04137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes6c1,475$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes7c1,452$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.11010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes60c1,300$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.873141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6442…2163backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes7c800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes7c800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No77c782.5$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.115750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9419…5865backed Yes10c752.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb53…709dbacked Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c669.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.731508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes22c512.56$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.178348.2%40 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked Yes7c499.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6766…0d0dbacked Yes6c476.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d46…bfb6backed Yes6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.270%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes8c392.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3021…a229backed Yes6c318.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes17c291.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa9…39a1backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No64c176.11$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96fd…3f63backed Yes27c141.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes10c110.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1804…90c9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No78c66.8$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.969181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No73c56.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.133171%22 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c55.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.126830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.