NFL · resolved market
Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf704cb3b56c8f75260044018aab29495270413e48e316fe31ac5b74d2b112468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Yes | 25c | 2,370$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 5c | 1,222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,206$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 75c | 1,166$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 1,054$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…a820backed Yes | 6c | 837.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 4c | 810$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 622.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 18c | 546.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 6c | 511.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 5c | 495.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…aed5backed Yes | 22c | 444.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 50c | 379.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…a229backed Yes | 6c | 329.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 6c | 308.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 15c | 302.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 246.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 8c | 242.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5c40backed Yes | 6c | 234.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 26c | 233.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…709dbacked Yes | 12c | 173.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 156.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…0b95backed Yes | 50c | 120.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 65c | 117.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…2787backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 27c | 92.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…1a10backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 25c | 55.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…bab4backed Yes | 24c | 50.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 61c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.