World Politics · resolved market
Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0fd3618354964f3eef092fa6a9c72b6e97e81435ace6829fb4c8275c0906246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 16,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 2c | 16,018$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…82e7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 5c | 5,020$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 45c | 3,064$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 0c | 2,633$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,562$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 2,438$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.09 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 56c | 2,138$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.36 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,995$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 1,605$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 28c | 1,520$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.12 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,519$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…2158backed Yes | 66c | 1,516$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…72afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,228$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.53 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 23c | 1,117$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 57c | 1,100$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 28c | 1,020$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 37c | 994.92$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 53c | 985.95$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 65c | 928.37$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…1fa4backed Yes | 11c | 908.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 5c | 821.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 817.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 63c | 798.36$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 785.95$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.39 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 37c | 780.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 48c | 703$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 58c | 700$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 75c | 626.47$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 50c | 601.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 600.76$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed No | 72c | 551.78$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 34c | 550.24$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked No | 39c | 550.05$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Yes | 60c | 519.62$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 27c | 450$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…2c25backed Yes | 67c | 446.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 40c | 432.95$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 62c | 430.26$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…0305backed Yes | 30c | 392.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…7341backed No | 39c | 344$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…5587backed Yes | 31c | 330.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 79c | 327$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…835bbacked Yes | 61c | 321.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 51c | 318.68$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f6e0backed Yes | 59c | 314.59$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 30c | 294$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…7254backed Yes | 54c | 276.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…5429backed Yes | 55c | 254.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…67febacked Yes | 5c | 228.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdf…7a67backed Yes | 6c | 224.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…b327backed Yes | 8c | 209.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 45c | 204.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…df60backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…8c0abacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f9…b46cbacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…8b4ebacked Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…d717backed Yes | 11c | 168.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 38c | 152.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 37c | 149.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes | 29c | 149.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 35c | 136.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 44c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes | 43c | 117.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…3a9ebacked Yes | 32c | 116.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 58c | 116.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…481abacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 28c | 94.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 63c | 93.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 58c | 88.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 39c | 87.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2b6abacked Yes | 60c | 83.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 61c | 82.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…7a88backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…01c2backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…595cbacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 29c | 63.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…b086backed Yes | 26c | 55.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…130fbacked Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…fa0dbacked Yes | 62c | 48.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…89ebbacked Yes | 52c | 47.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…02a3backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…786dbacked Yes | 51c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…574fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…5428backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…73cbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…9f9bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…9f30backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?this page
- Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Helen McEntee be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Holly Cairns be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Jack Chambers be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Jim O'Callaghan be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?Yes won
- Will Pearse Doherty be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Roderic O'Gorman be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.