World Politics · resolved market
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e58abd89b04a34b4a066d94c0bcf53cf0c7ccd9f568c6c1a339d996bce6356a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $995,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,317,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $995,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 5c | 133,539$6,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,419.84 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 37,896$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.26 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked No | 2c | 15,890$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 15,766$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.62 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 73c | 7,919$5,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 11c | 6,395$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 5,332$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.38 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 54c | 3,110$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 3c | 2,976$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 2,287$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…0260backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…453cbacked No | 1c | 1,883$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,794$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…fb9cbacked No | 3c | 1,340$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…60ddbacked No | 4c | 1,105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 28c | 1,100$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…66c5backed No | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 13c | 985.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 8c | 964.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 6c | 959.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…42a8backed Yes | 70c | 746.61$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 73c | 729$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…9750backed Yes | 63c | 713.82$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 32c | 705$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 52c | 660.74$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 65c | 651.09$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.34 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed No | 3c | 642.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 38c | 625$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 35c | 602.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 72c | 553.87$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 66c | 550.08$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 59c | 506.16$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.35 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ff…1752backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…52bbbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…b42dbacked No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 10c | 497.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…df60backed No | 8c | 488$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…8b4ebacked Yes | 73c | 464.26$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…7e05backed Yes | 76c | 462.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ff…4ef0backed No | 9c | 460$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 23c | 443.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 69c | 440.83$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…da6fbacked No | 27c | 411.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 411.51$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed No | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…0305backed Yes | 42c | 393.58$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d71…e0aabacked No | 8c | 388$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 36c | 375.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321a…b052backed No | 72c | 339.25$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 49c | 336.32$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 40c | 320$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.46 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…05e2backed Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 55c | 274.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes | 66c | 260$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2397…9af4backed No | 6c | 230.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…5429backed Yes | 38c | 228.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 41c | 219$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 69c | 207.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 29c | 206.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…7be6backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 31c | 195$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 42c | 182.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 38c | 178.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 26c | 171.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…574fbacked Yes | 66c | 160.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 64c | 156.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…1398backed Yes | 38c | 154.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 18c | 148.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa62…df75backed Yes | 67c | 138.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…53c3backed Yes | 77c | 129.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked No | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…01d0backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 27c | 116.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdb…fda4backed No | 43c | 115.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ef81backed Yes | 61c | 112.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…e919backed No | 11c | 109.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 15c | 104.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6e…bd1bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 49c | 99.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…9d5cbacked Yes | 63c | 97.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…481abacked No | 23c | 96.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 61c | 89.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…79dabacked Yes | 63c | 84.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…6f86backed Yes | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 71c | 79.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa7…5821backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…56dbbacked Yes | 72c | 76.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…cd52backed Yes | 76c | 76.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…cb69backed Yes | 74c | 75.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 35c | 75.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…4954backed Yes | 67c | 74.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yes | 69c | 72.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 73c | 71.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?this page
- Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Helen McEntee be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Holly Cairns be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Jack Chambers be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Jim O'Callaghan be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Mary Lou McDonald be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Pearse Doherty be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Roderic O'Gorman be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
- Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.