TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,363,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,363,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c7f…0f82backed Yes0c85,299$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3710…8cc4backed Yes0c84,459$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…fe19backed Yes0c75,800$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfd…0edfbacked Yes0c73,143$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b1…882bbacked Yes0c59,439$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100d…f9c6backed Yes0c57,591$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5808…9106backed Yes0c57,559$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…3237backed Yes0c56,669$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e0…83a2backed Yes0c56,665$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bf…8bc2backed Yes0c55,745$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773a…a807backed Yes0c55,537$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b3…42dfbacked Yes0c53,012$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f49…750fbacked Yes0c53,009$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3074…0375backed Yes0c52,907$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a82…ed64backed Yes0c52,110$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a03…2a1ebacked Yes0c52,085$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ea…5538backed Yes0c51,195$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fef…2f5dbacked Yes0c51,183$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a49…489cbacked Yes0c51,172$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0d…823fbacked Yes0c51,170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1709…fa00backed Yes0c51,163$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf6…62b2backed Yes0c50,296$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec2…fbccbacked Yes0c50,294$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45d…d20abacked Yes0c50,254$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bef…0ffebacked Yes0c50,243$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1840…93d8backed Yes0c49,389$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c0…e4ddbacked Yes0c49,353$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104c…91d5backed Yes0c49,341$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc716…f2b9backed Yes0c49,238$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33cb…c451backed Yes0c48,514$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f6…d374backed Yes0c48,465$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a07…2bfdbacked Yes0c48,458$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9b…8ab9backed Yes0c48,456$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ff…c503backed Yes0c48,447$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…4290backed Yes0c48,439$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0f…9276backed Yes0c48,207$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9177…c1b5backed Yes0c47,566$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0d…f74dbacked Yes0c47,533$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdac0…c7a8backed Yes0c47,532$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acb…9935backed Yes0c47,512$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecd…8dfabacked Yes0c47,512$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…bb41backed Yes0c47,503$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466c…8366backed Yes0c47,501$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a6…cd44backed Yes0c46,632$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2481…f1d7backed Yes0c46,623$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d7…9d29backed Yes0c46,623$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d5…6191backed Yes0c46,622$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ad…c93ebacked Yes0c46,620$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183c…d8a7backed Yes0c46,613$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf0f…6bb8backed Yes0c46,600$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5e…ad10backed Yes0c46,587$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ea…17e0backed Yes0c46,562$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcecd…f4a7backed Yes0c46,186$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a6…4026backed Yes0c45,694$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b27…a65cbacked Yes0c45,646$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2536…e130backed Yes0c45,286$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…af23backed Yes0c44,879$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…7c03backed Yes0c44,820$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e7…7690backed Yes0c44,808$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3646…4cf1backed Yes0c44,788$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3408…f9dabacked Yes0c44,774$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b6…f2eebacked Yes0c44,773$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2d…bfa1backed Yes0c44,758$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0460…1017backed Yes0c44,279$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc472…91aabacked Yes0c43,889$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ec…7ea6backed Yes0c43,872$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7165…a0b0backed Yes0c43,871$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7f…6f3abacked Yes0c43,871$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8284…45eabacked Yes0c43,854$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8382…ec05backed Yes0c43,820$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4069…429fbacked Yes0c43,265$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0e…2c08backed Yes0c43,065$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea5…f942backed Yes0c42,958$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ede…3717backed Yes0c42,956$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a2…e926backed Yes0c42,948$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…a448backed Yes0c42,865$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505b…b738backed Yes0c42,665$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc277…68fbbacked Yes0c42,665$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e68…08b0backed Yes0c42,071$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ab…8485backed Yes0c42,058$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7c…b7e5backed Yes0c42,058$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f7…c2a3backed Yes0c42,051$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9184…d7f7backed Yes0c41,990$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2811…3420backed Yes0c41,658$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f60…7eabbacked Yes0c41,154$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a02…3bebbacked Yes0c41,151$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…b5f0backed Yes0c41,145$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e6…f23ebacked Yes0c41,133$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079e…71cdbacked Yes0c41,133$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b4…af50backed Yes0c41,117$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e2…1c1cbacked Yes0c41,064$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c4…ee2ebacked Yes0c40,544$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b1…0616backed Yes0c40,544$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d6…97d8backed Yes0c40,232$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad38…3653backed Yes0c40,220$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43c6…9959backed Yes0c40,217$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7854…a231backed Yes0c40,215$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec5…01febacked Yes0c40,211$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae9…a0a0backed Yes0c40,207$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…ff47backed Yes0c40,037$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.