Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150c638f7d9b363454b82dee9de0dbf98ed987e1a1fbd8791d01e0dc6eab8d40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 0c | 38,062$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 17c | 19,355$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,579$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e4…8d0bbacked Yes | 32c | 15,626$4,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,982.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 59c | 11,634$6,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.45 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 68c | 9,107$6,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.05 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 14c | 8,999$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.85 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 5,843$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.16 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 5,138$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 1c | 4,872$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 6c | 4,288$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…02b6backed Yes | 50c | 4,047$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 15c | 3,332$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 53c | 2,978$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 12c | 2,860$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…29b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 30c | 2,002$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 5c | 1,833$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…cbb9backed Yes | 59c | 1,510$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…b485backed No | 41c | 1,510$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 46c | 1,440$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.16 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 59c | 1,009$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Yes | 7c | 972.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 9cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9be…1d98backed No | 40c | 969.56$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Yes | 6c | 772.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 751$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.81 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 594.21$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.53 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 38c | 549.1$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 60c | 523.5$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5c…153fbacked Yes | 14c | 512.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 46c | 509.97$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 45c | 508$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 70c | 473.24$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 47c | 472.5$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.13 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 439.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 47c | 421.34$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.63 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked No | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…ae11backed Yes | 31c | 392.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes | 11c | 391.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 33c | 376.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 59c | 359.75$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.58 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 53c | 350$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…2d6fbacked Yes | 27c | 340$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed No | 49c | 338.92$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 330.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed No | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 70c | 287.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 46c | 280.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed No | 38c | 274.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 75c | 268.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…93f5backed Yes | 38c | 262.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…c512backed Yes | 8c | 253.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2b…f448backed No | 50c | 237.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…d864backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 17c | 231.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 33c | 221.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes | 49c | 201.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed No | 50c | 199.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 54c | 198.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 183.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a6…7c76backed Yes | 56c | 179.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…edfcbacked Yes | 57c | 176.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…fbe6backed Yes | 22c | 170.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…8960backed Yes | 47c | 132.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed No | 42c | 119.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…dea3backed Yes | 27c | 110.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 26c | 103.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…298bbacked Yes | 60c | 101.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 18c | 101.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…d8d3backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 21c | 95.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 12c | 94.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…b6abbacked Yes | 22c | 92.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9990…8abcbacked Yes | 51c | 77.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…346fbacked Yes | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…6350backed Yes | 65c | 76.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 51c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Vivek Ramaswamy for Secretary of State?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.