Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9370ec28f1872eb96ebe74b33203704382dc66e7329ceba304524ff534c6dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 4c | 13,868$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,584$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,318$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 4,659$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,800$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 12c | 971.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ed…40d4backed Yes | 53c | 940.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 19c | 591.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 584$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…dbe0backed Yes | 21c | 466.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 5c | 400.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 7c | 170.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 13c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 8c | 165.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 130.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…8d19backed Yes | 31c | 127.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 51c | 111$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…6eecbacked Yes | 25c | 79.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 25c | 69.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…2386backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 68c | 59.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…fbf8backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?this page
- Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Vivek Ramaswamy for Secretary of State?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.