Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4203ed6ad791708297e37e1e2df7a51b0355fb357afbcb85d7f5c60faa8c7c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $634,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $585,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f82…7609backed No | 25c | 32,980$8,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,275.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 3c | 32,802$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.96 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 1c | 28,488$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 73c | 24,358$17,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,669.98 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 10c | 22,451$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.13 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 79c | 15,512$12,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.31 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…02b6backed No | 21c | 10,517$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 75c | 9,504$7,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.1 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…d1fbbacked No | 10c | 8,918$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 12c | 8,855$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.04 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 20c | 8,417$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 14c | 7,529$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.11 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 8c | 7,170$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.02 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…cc7ebacked Yes | 76c | 6,000$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 30c | 5,573$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…1851backed No | 16c | 5,510$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 66c | 5,172$3,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed No | 6c | 5,020$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 32c | 4,534$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.66 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 4,452$3,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.39 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed No | 1c | 4,042$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 80c | 3,981$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.78 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed No | 14c | 3,929$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 74c | 3,830$2,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.45 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 73c | 3,574$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.94 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked No | 9c | 3,522$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 10c | 3,333$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.02 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…dea3backed No | 9c | 3,252$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked No | 6c | 3,139$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 18c | 2,776$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 30c | 2,668$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 78c | 2,663$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 69c | 2,649$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed No | 23c | 2,606$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.26 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 78c | 2,568$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…dbfdbacked No | 28c | 2,531$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 68c | 2,506$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.85 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…5db9backed No | 31c | 2,502$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 8c | 2,360$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 1c | 2,349$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed No | 37c | 2,260$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 74c | 2,202$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 27c | 2,184$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.02 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6603…ee92backed No | 19c | 2,150$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…8265backed No | 21c | 2,058$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 7c | 1,990$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,977$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 37c | 1,910$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…4589backed No | 9c | 1,778$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed No | 26c | 1,721$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 6c | 1,705$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed No | 18c | 1,591$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,563$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.03 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,545$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked No | 25c | 1,345$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…bf79backed No | 21c | 1,195$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…37b0backed Yes | 75c | 1,187$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 79c | 1,120$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 15c | 1,111$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 74c | 1,103$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.29 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…e78fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,097$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 79c | 1,070$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed No | 12c | 1,042$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…1f60backed Yes | 15c | 1,020$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…0f50backed No | 31c | 986.33$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed No | 6c | 919.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 872.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 30c | 864.64$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cad…7136backed No | 20c | 829.46$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 826.76$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.1 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…c249backed No | 77c | 800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 57c | 792.43$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.43 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked No | 6c | 760$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 72c | 740$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 68c | 720$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 21c | 719.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 662.97$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.75 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 662.17$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…67d0backed No | 2c | 620.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…ca74backed Yes | 80c | 619.82$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…3161backed Yes | 79c | 604.5$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 65c | 596.15$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…7f82backed No | 8c | 575.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…fedbbacked No | 35c | 516.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…fbe6backed No | 15c | 503.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 35c | 500.22$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.94 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f6e0backed Yes | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…76b0backed No | 6c | 494.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 15c | 484.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…787cbacked No | 6c | 483.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 8c | 470.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…848bbacked Yes | 25c | 452.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…47c7backed Yes | 24c | 434.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked No | 5c | 425.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 6c | 411.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Vivek Ramaswamy for Secretary of State?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.