Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Vivek Ramaswamy for Secretary of State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3356d98fa23b8be6e70e2b360f0d15407580dd034ed14f67500fc8c15346a44f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f82…7609backed Yes | 7c | 17,154$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,448$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 12c | 7,641$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…7f82backed Yes | 1c | 4,080$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,704$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 3,291$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.22 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 5c | 708.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes | 9c | 317$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 5c | 257.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Vivek Ramaswamy for Secretary of State?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O'Brien for Secretary of State?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.