Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Thomas Homan for Homeland Security Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe15121359218df21765ed4b02ae7af059ea087125a9e7b52efdad239c30dd65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,192$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae16…8f21backed Yes | 50c | 1,837$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked No | 75c | 1,746$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 28c | 1,717$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 60c | 1,597$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.08 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 6c | 1,590$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…47c7backed Yes | 38c | 1,407$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 72c | 1,008$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.72 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…7ee3backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…5cd6backed Yes | 59c | 839.13$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…3f97backed No | 41c | 838.8$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 52c | 832.61$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.55 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…0a6abacked Yes | 26c | 806.35$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 797.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 70c | 407.52$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.26 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 68c | 357.14$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 291.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…b841backed Yes | 7c | 286.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 214.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 206.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 59c | 194.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 58c | 157$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 26c | 151.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 52c | 146.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 13c | 125.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 29cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 71c | 115.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 46c | 81.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 57.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…2010backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Thomas Homan for Homeland Security Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Chad Mizelle for Homeland Security Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Chad Wolf for Homeland Security Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mark Morgan for Homeland Security Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tulsi Gabbard for Homeland Security Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.