Us Politics · resolved market
Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6217c60bf985ceb11d13d272057d7ba4fc99afbcb119c1403b6efe389052f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked Yes | 12c | 50,546$6,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,065.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 6,146$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.41 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 38c | 5,877$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.29 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed No | 79c | 5,719$4,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf652…56afbacked No | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 3,269$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.36 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 2,191$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 21c | 1,763$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed No | 78c | 1,678$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 9c | 1,137$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 77c | 900$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 16c | 869.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 71c | 676.52$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.79 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 19c | 528.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 67c | 353$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.49 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 346.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 30c | 308.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 16c | 243.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 17c | 243.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 239.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 214.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…349fbacked Yes | 15c | 200.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Yes | 21c | 192.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 183$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 64c | 174$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…e677backed No | 68c | 170.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 75c | 165.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…103ebacked Yes | 15c | 159.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 77c | 140.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed No | 71c | 136$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 121.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 106.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9944backed Yes | 19c | 91.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 32c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd4…040bbacked Yes | 15c | 68.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 71c | 65.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…fc4bbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 70c | 30.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…7136backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 74c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.