TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Dogecoin above $0.31 on January 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d79…4725backed No30c9,382$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd49c…8150backed No30c6,305$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No20c6,213$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.631711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No28c5,836$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked Yes66c5,779$3,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No3c5,077$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.94456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No4c5,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.092218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb628…95c0backed No0c4,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No1c3,876$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.613616.7%6 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-45.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No41c2,600$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.871844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…821cbacked Yes58c2,584$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked No39c2,539$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe1…9100backed No48c2,273$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed Yes62c2,236$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c4…ce22backed No40c2,100$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…3934backed Yes60c2,026$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0539…9459backed No41c2,007$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0715…b17bbacked No5c1,984$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No28c1,832$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.2575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3396…759fbacked No39c1,703$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb828…27a9backed Yes61c1,650$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed No43c1,309$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed No50c1,222$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9156…4ad4backed Yes68c1,081$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes62c1,059$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.7121240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf6e…632fbacked Yes59c1,023$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Yes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes58c990.48$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No8c963.83$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a60…d019backed No28c929.22$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No25c906.52$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.88160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b5c…f96fbacked No30c901.09$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa6…de7abacked No52c858.49$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x436a…f32abacked Yes62c808.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes61c737.28$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+64.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed No34c689$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked No15c675.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b47…d45bbacked Yes70c636.07$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…cf47backed Yes63c634.69$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb2…5f70backed Yes61c633$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes53c618.21$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.58475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x705f…8814backed Yes67c592.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb443…fabbbacked Yes57c581.98$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7e…a625backed No39c549.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed Yes63c515.25$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.964100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+97.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked No43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5909…71cebacked Yes63c495$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No37c486.64$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes60c442.54$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.021450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1912…3a08backed Yes64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No31c364.82$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21b6…52bcbacked Yes60c358.6$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c354.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2333…91a3backed No45c313.19$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes71c312.06$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes55c310.73$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.54977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d1e…7a42backed No41c306$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes59c299.4$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x625a…97a5backed Yes61c291.16$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x082b…5e67backed Yes64c279.08$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8053…810cbacked No28c268.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes74c267.71$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes56c251.68$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…03c8backed No41c230$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…5788backed Yes59c220.25$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes66c220$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa273…9579backed Yes54c220$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c23…088abacked No39c218.13$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b4…9764backed No48c209.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe845…a28ebacked Yes48c208.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba9…8eacbacked No49c202.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5586…4fc0backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa366…b460backed Yes50c199.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes61c189.34$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No43c184.04$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.38238.7%2 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x179c…8f9dbacked Yes53c181$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cba…70d9backed No47c181$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1853…326abacked No47c181$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a6…e05bbacked Yes53c181$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6218…36e8backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a2…29d8backed No47c176$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733a…1f90backed Yes53c176$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7955…8298backed Yes53c175$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8039…20b1backed No47c175$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fdd…c94ebacked Yes53c174$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e95…be8abacked No47c174$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8742…3a73backed Yes52c173$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb426…ff49backed No48c173$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3556…f386backed No47c172$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3737…3a2cbacked Yes53c172$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba3…0da3backed No47c171$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da4…440dbacked Yes53c171$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47d…d09bbacked Yes53c171$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b3…f5c1backed No47c171$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3961…8101backed No47c170$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…fef0backed Yes53c170$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.