Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2701c648717b409cd6c8565085401892111f9f7775cc62799a4a98c3238b3102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 76c | 15,621$11,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 22c | 7,174$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.49 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…2b9cbacked Yes | 21c | 4,498$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 15c | 2,855$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 27c | 2,400$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.5 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 26c | 2,128$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 1,888$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.47 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,509$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,483$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,272$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 7c | 1,234$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 41c | 1,234$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 27c | 1,233$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,035$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 1,027$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…16dbbacked Yes | 21c | 963.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…5e71backed No | 73c | 906.9$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 822.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 36c | 582.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 32c | 500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 10c | 475$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 45c | 464.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 453.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 362$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 72c | 348$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 68c | 335.09$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 19c | 329$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 79c | 325.37$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 307$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 32c | 303.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 21c | 253.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 216.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…9498backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 207.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 28c | 163.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 8c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…a4dbbacked Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 69c | 123.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 113.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…49acbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…c790backed No | 68c | 96.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…09a6backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +101%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 66c | 70.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 76c | 70.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 67c | 66.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 30c | 54.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…d223backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…e969backed No | 80c | 31.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…b7bcbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…281ebacked No | 76c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…0156backed No | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.